There will be no Chinese credit explosion this time, no real help from
post-bubble India or over-stretched Brazil.
It will be a global downturn on all fronts, aborting what remains of recovery
even before industrial output in the OECD bloc has regained its pre-Lehman
peak.
The second wave will hit with youth unemployment already at 45pc in Greece and
49pc in Spain; and with the US labour participation rate already at
depression levels of 64pc.
We will hear more about Italy's Red Brigades, Greece's Sect of
Revolutionaries, and America's militia groups, and how democracies respond.
Proto-fascism in Hungary is our warning.
China's surgical soft-landing will slip control, like Fed tightening in 1929
and 2007, or Japan's squeeze in 1990. Once construction has run amok, bears
will have their way.
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